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AI cloud passed mining and the sub started arguing the bear case: P/S 4 even if the ARR lands
Argued IREN bear DD: share count up about 42% in a year to 394 million with a $6B at-the-market program still running, a $700M time-vested stock grant to the two founders (about 5% of shares, no performance conditions, because earlier hurdles were cleared too quickly), Chanos sizes the grant at roughly 17% of projected FY27-FY30 cumulative adjusted net income, and FY26 revenue of $707M carries no profit at 26 times sales with Q4 revenue down 5.2% sequentially and only about $1B of the headline $4B contracted ARR near term.
IREN up 7.5% to $39.60 on the Dell read-through: $1.6B Blackwell order through Dell, $95B Dell AI backlog, 94M shares short (28% of float, 2.2 days to cover); $39 has to hold.
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Open TrendingIREN doubter case: even at $4B ARR the P/S is ~4 with profitability unproven, and improving Chinese models threaten compute demand.
Regard-style but real: long IREN via ~4-month calls (AI/bitcoin datacenter momentum); comment thread carries substantive counterpoints worth reading.
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